The Independent Variable - Matt Haugland

Thursday, December 20, 2007

WxChallenge update

Computers now can compete well with humans in weather forecasting.

The first half of the WxChallenge forecasting contest is over, and the results are extremely encouraging.

My 6AM and 4PM model runs are currently ranked #123 and #78, out of 1322 forecasters. To put that in perspective, the next best computer model is #427 and the National Weather Service is #426. On the human side, the OU team is ranked #188 and (sorry, can't resist) Penn State is #227 and Texas A&M is down at #729.

Still a long way to go to catch up to the top forecaster (a professor I know from SJSU, an amazing forecaster) and the top team (MIT). But I'm continuing to improve the model so hopefully the second half will be even better.


At 12:55 PM, Blogger Marcian said...

I'm glad things are going so well with it!


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